Kohl Loses - 6.3% Probability

The odds of U.S. Senator Herb Kohl losing reelection next year has been tabulated at 6.3%.

Statisticians say Kohl owns the geographic base where 72% of all Wisconsin voters reside. Partisans say Kohl appeals to both sides of the aisle. Financial planners say Kohl has the wherewithal to spend the kids’ inheritance and still replenish those trust funds with nothing but the interest his passbook savings yields. If only he had kids.

And pundits say Kohl is unbeatable. But is he?

Kohl’s chance at missing reelection is exactly the same as his Milwaukee Bucks had at winning the #1 draft pick in the NBA lottery. Perhaps serendipity is raising an eyebrow in the direction of Republicans.

The last time the Bucks won the draft lottery was 1994. What an historic year. The Bucks won Glenn Robinson, and the Republicans won everything else.

The Bucks followed the franchise Big Dog to several NBA titles, right? No?

The promise of NBA titles worked in 1994 and Kohl was reelected to his second term. But as he moves toward a 4th term, the magic is gone. Like his record of accomplishments in the U.S. Senate, the Bucks have been unremarkable for too long now.

It may be only 6.3% probable, but Kohl can be beat. Unless, he drafts the next Michael Jordan-esque franchise savior, re-signs Michael Redd, and brings back Ray Allen. Then, odds drop to about the same likelihood of me being brought off the bench to spell Toni Kukoc.