Falk's Gift; 2010 Redistricting Numbers

The best thing about Dane County Executive Kathleen Falk’s Dem primary challenge to incumbent Attorney General Peg Lautenschlager is the pending county-by-county, ward-by-ward election results.

In other words, the best predictor of future election results is past election results.

With a genuinely competitive Republican primary for Governor occurring alongside a somewhat competitive Democrat primary for Attorney General, political operatives will have new data to crunch for future campaign efforts.

This is fun stuff; stuff campaign junkies live for.

In September 2006, Democrats will vote for the Democrats, Republicans for the Republicans; each Party unable to cross-over and vote in the other’s Primary.

All you Republicans that entertained the idea of voting for Democrat Lautenschlager in hopes of pulling her through her primary where either GOPer Bucher or Van Hollen would wax her -- nah-ah – once you pull a Democrat primary lever you can’t come back and vote in the GOP primary for either Green or Walker.

Likewise, you Democrats. Thought you would jump over and vote for Scott Walker, believing he’s more vulnerable to Democrat Governor Jim Doyle in the general election based on a tenuous hold in Milwaukee County as the county executive? Then give-up your voice in the marquee Democrat AG match-up.

September 2006 will establish new Party base votes that will not only be scrutinized up-and-down future ballot races, but, will also serve as a powerful tool as we approach another decennial redistricting effort.

As the Republican Assembly Caucus staffer for redistricting in 1990, the GOP Primary for Governor in 1986 and the Democrat Primary for U.S. Senate in 1988 were the base that 99 assembly district boundaries and 33 state senate boundaries were drawn from.

4 years later, the GOP would control both houses and the governor’s office. And we nearly had Democrat Attorney General Jim Doyle’s number as well (see yesterday's post).