No, Ellis Won't Jump

Ellis weighs costly race
State senator says $10M tag may halt bid for governor
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Mike Ellis will live to regret not running for governor, just as Tommy Thompson surely regrets not running for President.

But just as 2000 was not the year for Tommy (1996 was), 2006 is not the year for Mike (2002 was).

Luck has been defined as when preparedness meets opportunity. Much of winning an election is simply luck; luck and timing.

For all of us political consultants who get credit for winning big races (Brandon Scholz with Scott Klug in 1990, myself with Paul Ryan in 1998, Bill Christofferson with Jim Doyle in 2002), the truth is, the right mix of events collided. After that, as they say, you can’t beat some body with nobody.

Candidates win races, not consultants.

Which is why Ellis would have taken the nomination away from Scott McCallum in 2002.

Had Ellis ran in 2002, most of his colleagues would have endorsed him against acting Governor McCallum. Today, Ellis’s colleagues are already with Mark Green.

Had Ellis ran in 2002, the business community may not have abandoned him in the general election against Jim Doyle, as they did with McCallum. Today, big-money markers are already placed with Doyle, Green or Scott Walker.

Had Ellis ran in 2002, he would have creamed McCallum in debates. OK, bad example; a high school student president could cream McCallum in debates.

Had Ellis ran in 2002, he’d be governor today.

As the incumbent, Ellis’s conservative credentials would be stone solid coming-off 2 budgets since the 2002 gubernatorial election. And as an independent maverick (see previous post), Mike Ellis would own the statewide bully pulpit to showcase his big ideas and move public opinion in his direction.

Many Republican donors fear Mike Ellis - especially in the wealthy suburbs of metro-Milwaukee. His opposition to the taxpayer-financing of Miller Park threatened their world. And earlier, across the state in LaCrosse, Mike dared to call-out once uber-lobbyist "Uncle Billy" and SWIB's sweetheart deals that cost the state millions.

And look at what that family tree has sprouted from its trunk.

Senator Mike Ellis; say what you want about his style, but no one can argue he has been a consistant conservative.

Had Ellis run in 2002, we would not be saddled with Jim Doyle today. And something serious would have been tried to tame property taxes.