Republicans Will Retain Majority

Chuck Todd of the National Journal claims Democrats have a real shot at reclaiming the U.S. Senate in 2006. (story)

Oh, those silly prognosticators. They continue to tread where the landscape is their own quicksand.

It was an eye-opener for me while running campaigns for the National Republican Senatorial Committee to see how little most voters care about their U.S. Senate races. From Maine to Colorado, Senate races are less about traditional grassroots and in-state coalitions, and more about traditional vote history and broad themes. And fundraising. Mostly fundraising that buys GRPs.

The Bush Landslide of 2004 carried 31 states. Kerry, 19. If every Bush state had 2 Republican senators and every Kerry state had 2 Democrat senators, the math totals a 62-38 edge for Republicans.

Actual composition is 55 Republican, 44 Democrat, and Jeffords, who serves as proof voters care less about their senators than their governors and mayors.

Of the 55 GOP senators, only 9 serve in Kerry states. However, of the 44 Democrat senators, 16 serve in Bush states. I refuse to use the Blue-Red categories, since only a liberal nut would assign the Communist red color to Republican states. Vote history within those states weighs in favor Republicans.

Tom Daschle’s defeat last year was just the beginning. Bush carried North Dakota by 27 points and South Dakota by 22 points. Sooner than later, Democrats Dorgan, Conrad and Johnson will be swept out in their states’ GOP rip tide.

And West Virginia Democrat Robert Byrd, who sadly, may benefit from his past KKK membership, will hand the Republicans another seat once he and his white robes are placed in a Wilkesboro museum.

Remember, it was House Speaker Tip O’Neil, not Senate Majority Leader Mike Mansfield, who said all politics is local. For U.S. Senate races, the only thing local is traditional voting behavior.