Tuesday, August 2, 2005

Emily’s List Polls in WI-8

Even the best pollsters in the country can lay an egg when they lose site of honest data and bend the scripts to collect the desired results for a paying client.

In WI-8, Stan Greenberg, Clinton pollster turned celebrity rheumatoid salesman, peddles poll results that in no way reflect reality.

About the only truth this bogus poll reveals is that John Gard and Nancy Nusbaum are indeed each Party’s frontrunner. It remains to be seen how each of their Primary opponents exploit the high negatives the frontrunners bring to the campaign.

The coming seismic shifts in the WI political landscape combined with the notorious inaccuracy of primary and special election polling makes any poll done 13 months before a primary an expensive bookend.

Remember;

1978 Governor Bob Kasten?
1986 Governor Jonathan Barry?
1988 U.S. Senator Tony Earl?
1992 U.S. Senator Jim Moody?
1994 U.S. Senator Cate Zueske?
2002 Governor Tom Barrett?
2004 U.S. Senator Russ Darrow?

Each of these candidates where once political heavyweights who enjoyed frontrunner status until primary voters crashed their dreams.

The $25,000 Emily’s List paid Greenberg will give Nusbaum as much value as an unused 2005 Summerfest ticket.

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research
survey was conducted May 17-24, 2005
598 likely November 2006 voters
Wisconsin’s 8th congressional district

GENERAL ELECTION:
Nancy Nusbaum: 45%
John Gard: 46%

GENERIC CONGRESSIONAL VOTE:
Democrat: 43%
Republican:43%

OTHER POLL DATA:
Country Right Direction: 33%
Wrong Track: 58%

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