It's a Vegas Long-Shot

Democrat announces challenge for 1st Congressional District seat

Sowa Announcment

Having directed the first race Paul Ryan won in 1998, I can say with some knowledge that Justin Sowa (D-Franklin) will not be sworn in as a member of Congress in 2007.

This is a fact that is not so much testimony of Paul Ryan’s personal popularity (although he is), but rather, the simple truth of what redistricting does to candidate electability.

Once upon a time, WI-1 was among the most competitive, evenly balanced two-Party House districts in the Midwest.

Although that 1998 race between Lydia Spottswood (D-Kenosha) and Paul finished in a slam dunk for Paul, too many forget that in 1997 and most of 1998, few GOP insiders believed Paul could win. Democrats had nearly toppled Rep. Mark Neumann in 1996 and Spottswood was returning to take the seat vacated by Neumann’s U.S. Senate run against Russ Feingold.

And we didn’t even find a campaign manager until May of the election year.

Paul first won that seat on pure energy. But he keeps that seat based on numbers that don’t add-up for Mr. Sowa.

Wisconsin lost a House seat in the 2000 reapportionment; marking an opportune time for ole House bulls Rep. Jim Sensenbrenner (R-Menomonee Falls) and Rep. Dave Obey (D-Wausau) to take care of their own.

Redrawing state legislative and federal district boundaries is a responsibility given to state legislatures. However, when it comes to the congressional boundaries, the senior Members in each state have a ton of sway with the partisan composition of new House seats.

Which is why Democrat-voting Beloit was carved from the First District and replaced with portions of GOP-voting Waukesha County. The Ryan seat is now safe for Republicans and a lock for popular Ryan.

Which is why Beloit was added to the Second District and portions of rural GOP-voting regions outside of Democrat-voting Dane County were dropped. Rep. Tammy Baldwin’s (D-Madison) seat is even safer for Democrats and a lock for liberal, hard-working Baldwin.

It’s been said had Newt Gingrich missed the tide in 1994 and not captured control of the House, Democrats would still have the majority today.

Had Paul Ryan lost that race in 1998 to Lydia Spottswood, the First District boundaries would still contain Beloit, would not contain Waukesha County, and might even cross into Dane County.

Mr. Sowa is embarking on a mission that ignores the institutional reality of Congress. Like Las Vegas, the House owns the odds.